Benny Morris draws vital distinction between a nuclear-armed Israel and a nuclear-armed Iran

Benny Morris:   "There is a vital difference between a nuclear-armed Israel and a nuclear-armed Iran: The Iranian regime is bad. It assaulted and murdered its own people following President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's fraudulent reelection in 2009. It supports terrorists beyond its own borders, including against Israel. The regime is also mad; it has threatened Israel's destruction.

But Israel, even when massively attacked by Syrian and Egyptian forces in 1973, has never used nuclear weapons, which it has had for more than 40 years. Israel has never threatened its neighbors with destruction. Though it may have a hawkish right-wing government in power, Israel has always been (and is now) run by rational, sane leaders who would never use nuclear weapons unless faced with apocalyptic circumstances.

Comparing the two countries — a democracy and a totalitarian theocratic dictatorship — is silly and smacks of moral relativism. Visits to the two countries would make this obvious."

source:

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/letters/la-le-postscript-israel-iran-nuclear-20120225,0,6848944.story

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Iran in the news

UN agency report concludes Iran is working on advanced nuclear warhead - Guardian


 http://bit.ly/vT1WEU

Iran Displays New Centrifuge For Nuclear Work

TEHRAN (Reuters) 4/9/2010  excerpt - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, taunting the United States for trying to halt Iran's nuclear programme, unveiled a new centrifuge on Friday which officials said would enrich uranium much faster then existing models.

U.S. President Barack Obama, who is seeking tougher U.N. sanctions against Tehran, acknowledged that such measures would not necessarily work, but said sustained world pressure could over time prompt Iran to revise its nuclear calculations.

Iran uranium plan concerns IAEA

International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Yukiya Amano said he was concerned over Iran's plan to produce higher enriched uranium. (AFP) February 8, 2010

Iran moves closer to confrontation with West over uranium   February 7, 2010  Telegraph.co.UK

[Ahmadinejad call for uranium enrichment at the 20 % level, ostensibly for medical use. --MF  ]  "Once enriched to 20 per cent, uranium needs to be further processed to 90 per cent for weapons purposes, but analysts believe Iran now has or is close to having the technical means to achieve that enhancement. "

Mr Ahmadinejad's order was the culmination of a series of confusing statements by the regime in the last week. If it is carried out, it will scupper what was hoped to be a looming deal to transfer most of Iran's uranium abroad for further processing. Many in the West want uranium processing to take place outside the country so that fears over a weapons programme are allayed and the country's nuclear plans are better monitored.

European nations and America were already leading calls for more sanctions to be applied to Iran in the absence of a deal. Now if further enrichment starts, they are likely to put proposals to the United Nations security council soon.

Mullen: Clock now running on White House dialogue with Iran

Dec. 20, 2009  Associated Press 

The top US military officer, Adm. Mike Mullen, said on Sunday that he is not assuming that Iran's brief seizure of an Iraqi oil well is part of an orchestrated plan in Teheran.

Mullen also said he was worried about "the clock now running" on the Obama administration's efforts at trying to keep the lines of communication open with Iran.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff also said Sunday while flying from Germany to the US that "signals are very clearly in the air" about more international penalties against Iran over its nuclear program.

Secret document exposes Iran’s nuclear trigger
Catherine Philp in Washington. The Times [London] December 14, 2009

Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.

The notes, from Iran’s most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron initiator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.

An Asian intelligence source last week confirmed to The Times that his country also believed that weapons work was being carried out as recently as 2007 — specifically, work on a neutron initiator.

The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan’s bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.

“Although Iran might claim that this work is for civil purposes, there is no civil application,” said David Albright, a physicist and president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, which has analysed hundreds of pages of documents related to the Iranian programme. “This is a very strong indicator of weapons work.”

The documents have been seen by intelligence agencies from several Western countries, including Britain. A senior source at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that they had been passed to the UN’s nuclear watchdog.

A Foreign and Commonwealth Office spokeswoman said yesterday: “We do not comment on intelligence, but our concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme are clear. Obviously this document, if authentic, raises serious questions about Iran’s intentions.”

Responding to The Times’ findings, an Israeli government spokesperson said: “Israel is increasingly concerned about the state of the Iranian nuclear programme and the real intentions that may lie behind it.”

White House unhappy with Iranian nuke proposal

The White House is expressing unhappiness over Iran's announcement that it is ready to exchange uranium for nuclear fuel.

Such a deal would meet a key demand of a UN-sponsored effort to defuse fears over Iran's nuclear ambitions. But instead of shipping most of its uranium abroad for processing before it is returned to Tehran, Iran's foreign minister said Saturday that the material instead would be exchanged in batches. (AP) 12/12/09

Ahmandinejad: Israel can’t stop Iranian nukes

December 2, 2009

JERUSALEM (JTA) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel cannot do a "damn thing" to stop his country's nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad made the statement Wednesday in a televised speech, Reuters reported.

He called the International Atomic Energy Agency's resolution approved last week censuring the country's nuclear activity "illegal" and said it came "under pressure of a few superficially powerful countries."
The IAEA resolution called on Iran to halt construction of a recently disclosed underground nuclear enrichment facility. In response, Iran's parliament on Sunday approved the construction of 10 new uranium enrichment sites.

IAEA: "We have effectively reached a dead end, unless Iran engages fully with us."

BBC November 26, 2009

Investigations into Iran's nuclear programme will reach a "dead end" unless Tehran starts to co-operate, the UN nuclear chief has warned.

Mohamed El Baradei told governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that there had been no movement on issues that needed to be clarified.

He said he was "disappointed" with Iran's rejection of a deal that would see its uranium processed overseas.

He spoke ahead of an IAEA vote on a resolution critical of Iran.

In September Iran was revealed to have a second uranium enrichment facility, deepening Western fears about the nature of its nuclear ambitions.

Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful energy purposes, but the US and other nations say its is seeking nuclear weapons.

'Outstanding issues'

Addressing IAEA governors in Vienna, Mr El Baradei said his inspectors had made no progress on areas which needed to be clarified in order to verify the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear programme.

"It is now well over a year since the agency was last able to engage Iran in discussions about these outstanding issues," he said.

"We have effectively reached a dead end, unless Iran engages fully with us."

Tehran's late declaration of a second nuclear fuel enrichment facility had, he said, reduced "confidence in the absence of other nuclear facilities under construction in Iran which have not been declared".

And he called Iran's failure to agree to a US-backed plan under which its low-enriched uranium would be shipped overseas for processing into fuel disappointing.

The plan is seen as a way for Iran to get the fuel it needs, while giving guarantees to the West that it will not be used for nuclear weapons.

The BBC's John Leyne says that after years of taking a conciliatory tone, Mr El Baradei appears to have lost patience with the Iranians.

The IAEA chief, who steps down next month, spoke ahead of the vote on a resolution calling on Iran to halt construction of the recently-declared enrichment plant.

According to Reuters news agency, it also calls on Iran to comply with Security Council resolutions demanding a halt to uranium enrichment activity and allow IAEA inspectors access to its facilities.

If approved, it would be the first IAEA action against Iran in almost four years. The vote is expected either later in the day or on Friday.

Inspectors Fear Iran Is Hiding Nuclear Plants

By DAVID E. SANGER and WILLIAM J. BROAD
Published: November 16, 2009 NY Times {excerpt}

WASHINGTON — International inspectors who gained access to Iran’s newly revealed underground nuclear enrichment plant voiced strong suspicions in a report on Monday that the country was concealing other atomic facilities.

In unusually tough language, the International Atomic Energy Agency appeared highly skeptical that Iran would have built the enrichment plant without also constructing a variety of other facilities that would give it an alternative way to produce nuclear fuel if its main centers were bombed.

Iran fails to accept UN uranium enrichment plan

Published: 10.23.09,

State TV says Iran wants to buy nuclear fuel it needs for a research reactor rather than accept a UN-drafted plan to ship much of its uranium to Russia for further enrichment.


Friday's report quotes an unnamed source close to Iran's negotiating team as saying Tehran is waiting for a response to its proposal to buy nuclear fuel for the reactor, which is used to make radioactive medical isotopes. (AP)

Iran lawmaker rejects nuke deal to ship uranium

Oct 22, 9:48 AM (ET)

By NASSER KARIMI


TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran's deputy parliament speaker on Thursday dismissed an internationally backed draft plan to have Tehran ship its uranium abroad for enrichment, the official IRNA news agency reported.

The remarks by Mohammad Reza Bahonar were the first reaction in Tehran on the proposal, presented Wednesday after three days of talks between Iran and world powers in the Austrian capital, Vienna.

The plan is seen by international community as a way to curb Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.

Tehran is expected to decide by Friday on whether to approve the plan that calls for shipping Iran's uranium to Russia for enrichment to a level that renders it suitable as nuclear fuel for energy production - not for nuclear weapons.

"The United States demanded Iran ship uranium abroad, in return for getting fuel back," Bahonar said, according to IRNA. "But Iran does not accept this."

Iran's parliament will not vote on the draft plan and Bahonar does not speak for the government, which is to decide on the matter.

But it's unclear if his comments could reflect high-level resistance to the deal or the opinions of some influential politicians in Iran.

There has been no response so far to the offer from Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters, or President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The proposal may meet resistance by some Iranian leaders because it weakens Iran's control over its stockpiles of nuclear fuel and could be perceived as a concession to the United States, which took part in the Vienna talks with France and Russia.

Under the Vienna-brokered draft, Iran is required to send 1.2 tons of low-enriched uranium to Russia in one batch by the end of this year, French Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said Thursday.

After further enrichment in Russia, the uranium will be converted into fuel rods that would be returned to Iran. Valero said France would be the one making that conversion.

"France is an active party to this accord," Valero said, stressing that Paris is still a player in the proposal despite Iranian criticism of any French role in the plan earlier this week.

Valero, in an on-line briefing, also said the proposal drafted in Vienna allows Iran to pursue production of radio-isotopes for medical purposes, "while constituting a useful gesture that could contribute to reducing tensions over the nuclear issue."

He gave no further details.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said the draft agreement was "a very positive step."

Over the past days, both Iran's head of atomic energy department Ali Akbar Salehi and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki reiterated that Iran would not give up its rigts to uranium enrichment.

That suggests Iran plans to keep its enrichment facilities active, an assurance against the fears that the fuel supply from abroad could be cut off.

Salehi said Tuesday in an interview with a local newspaper said that Iran was willing to get fuel from abroad and that further enrichment has no economic feasibility for Iran. "It has an economic aspect. For us purchasing enriched uranium is easier than its enrichment" domestically, he said.

Iran needs only 660 pounds (300 kilograms) of 20 percent-enriched uranium for its Tehran plant in 30 years. The plant has been producing radioisotopes for medical purposes over the past decades.

Iran has already arranged its facilities to produce fuel for its planned nuclear power plant at a 3.5 percent enrichment rate. The plant, built by Russia, is scheduled to begin operations before the end of the year.

---

Ahmadinejad: discussion over Iran's nuclear issue is over

Ahmadinejad: Iran 'Will Never Negotiate' Over Nuclear 'Rights'

Monday , September 07, 2009 AP

TEHRAN, Iran — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Monday Iran will neither halt uranium enrichment nor negotiate over its nuclear rights but is ready to sit and talk with world powers over "global challenges."

His statements came as the international nuclear watchdog warned of a "stalemate" over Iran's nuclear program. Members of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency began meetings in Vienna that could set the stage for a toughening of sanctions against Iran.

Ahmadinejad also said Iran will present a package of proposals for talks to the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany but rejected any deadline for such talks.

He said the package would "identify challenges facing humanity ... and resolve global concerns."

But he said that "from our point of view, Iran's nuclear issue is over. We continue our work within the framework of global regulations and in close interaction with the International Atomic Energy Agency." But "we will never negotiate over obvious rights of the Iranian nation," he said.

He said the only two aspects of the nuclear file he was willing to discuss were "creating peaceful nuclear energy for all countries" and a mechanism to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons and encourage global nuclear disarmament.

President Barack Obama and European allies have given Iran until the end of September to take up an offer of nuclear talks with six world powers and trade incentives should it suspend uranium enrichment activities. If not, Iran could face harsher punitive sanctions.

The U.S. and some of its allies accuse Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has denied the charges, saying its nuclear program is aimed at generating electricity, not a bomb.

Iran has repeatedly vowed it will never suspend enrichment work, saying it has every right under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to enrich uranium and produce nuclear fuel. The enrichment process can produce either fuel for a reactor or the material for a warhead.

"It is very clear that this (deadline) is incompatible with the Iranian nation's needs and direction today," Ahmadinejad told a press conference Monday. "Resolving global issues requires constructive interaction on the basis of justice and respect."

Ahmadinejad said Iran will continue to cooperate with the IAEA over regulations on safeguards on its nuclear sites, "but we will resist if the agency is influenced by political pressures."

The agency's chief Mohamed ElBaradei, however, said Monday that the situation over Iran's nuclear program has reached a "stalemate."

He said Iran has not suspended uranium enrichment and not cleared up other lingering questions about possible military dimensions of its atomic activities, and he urged Tehran to "substantively re-engage" with the IAEA.

Iran says allegations of nuclear weapons studies by Tehran is based on forged documents but the U.S. and its European allies want to draw Iran back into negotiations over such concerns.

"The proposals we have prepared seeks to identify challenges facing humanity and basic directions for a durable solution to those challenges ... we are ready, within a logical and just framework, to sit and talk with all those ... who can make contribution to reform global affairs," Ahmadinejad told reporters.

The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — the U.S., France, Britain, Russia and China — plus Germany offered Iran a modified package of economic incentives June last year in return for suspending its uranium enrichment activities or face harsher sanctions.

Iran has said the incentives package has some "common ground" with Tehran's own proposals for a resolution to the standoff.

Germany and France — both important trade partners with Iran — have recently become far more forceful in their threats of possible sanctions.

Ahmadinejad did not directly address Obama's calls for a U.S.-Iran dialogue, and instead renewed an offer he has made in the past to hold a public debate with the U.S. president.

"Once again, I announce that I'm ready for debate and dialogue in front of global media on global issues," he said.

Israel, Iran and Obama
Conflict is inevitable unless the West moves quickly to stop a nuclear Tehran.

Editorial, Wall Street Journal, August 30, 2009

The International Atomic Energy Agency has produced another alarming report on Iran's nuclear programs, though it hasn't released it publicly, only to governments that would also rather not disclose more details of Iran's progress toward becoming a nuclear theocracy. Meanwhile, Iran intends to introduce a resolution, backed by more than 100 members of the so-called Non-Aligned Movement, that would ban military attacks on nuclear facilities. No actual mention of Israel, of course.

The mullahs understand that the only real challenge to their nuclear ambitions is likely to come from Israel. They've long concluded that the U.N. is no threat, as IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has in practice become an apologist for Iran's program. They can also see that the West lacks the will to do anything, as the Obama Administration continues to plead for Tehran to negotiate even as Iran holds show trials of opposition leaders and journalists for saying the recent re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was fraudulent. The irony is that the weaker the West and U.N. appear, the more probable an Israeli attack becomes.
***

The reality that Western leaders don't want to admit is that preventing Iran from getting the bomb is an Israeli national imperative, not a mere policy choice. That's a view shared across Israel's political spectrum, from traditional hawks like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to current Defense Minister and former Labor Prime Minister Ehud Barak. Israelis can see the relentless progress Iran is making toward enriching uranium, building a plutonium-breeding facility and improving on its ballistic missiles—all the while violating U.N. sanctions without consequence. Iran's march to the bomb also alarms its Arab neighbors, but it represents an existential threat to an Israeli nation that Iran has promised to destroy and has waged decades of proxy war against.

This threat has only increased in the wake of Iran's stolen election and crackdown. The nature of the regime seems to be changing from a revolutionary theocracy to a military-theocratic state that is becoming fascist in operation. The Revolutionary Guard Corps is gaining power at the expense of the traditional military and a divided clerical establishment.

On the weekend, Ahmadinejad called for the arrest and punishment of opposition leaders, and last week he nominated Ahmad Vahidi, a commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps, to become defense minister. Vahidi is wanted on an Interpol arrest warrant for his role in masterminding the 1994 attack on a Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires. That attack killed 85 people and wounded 200 others. Vahidi's nomination shows that when Ahmadinejad talks of wiping Israel off the map, no Israel leader can afford to dismiss it as a religious allegory.

Israel also looks warily on the Obama Administration's policy of diplomatic pleading with Iran, which comes after six years of failed diplomatic overtures by the European Union and Bush Administration. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's suggestion in July that the U.S. would extend a "defense umbrella" over its allies in the Middle East "once [Iranians] have a nuclear weapon" may have been a slip of the lip. But Israelis can be forgiven for wondering if the U.S. would sooner accept a nuclear Iran as a fait accompli than do whatever is necessary to stop it.

It's no wonder, then, that the Israeli military has been intensively—and very publicly—war-gaming attack scenarios on Iran's nuclear installations. This has included sending warships through the Suez Canal (with Egypt's blessing), testing its Arrow antiballistic missile systems and conducting nation-wide emergency drills. U.S. and Israeli military officials we've spoken to are confident an Israeli strike could deal a significant blow to Iran's programs, even if some elements would survive. The longer Israel waits, however, the more steps Iran can take to protect its installations.

The consequences of an Israeli attack are impossible to predict, but there is no doubt they would implicate U.S. interests throughout the Middle East. Iran would accuse the U.S. of complicity, whether or not the U.S. gave its assent to an attack. Iran could also attack U.S. targets, drawing America into a larger Mideast war.

Short of an Islamist revolution in Pakistan, an Israeli strike on Iran would be the most dangerous foreign policy issue President Obama could face, throwing all his diplomatic ambitions into a cocked hat. Yet in its first seven months, the Administration has spent more diplomatic effort warning Israel not to strike than it has rallying the world to stop Iran.
***

In recent days, the Administration has begun taking a harder line against Tehran, with talk of "crippling" sanctions on Iran's imports of gasoline if the mullahs don't negotiate by the end of September. Rhetorically, that's a step in the right direction. But unless Mr. Obama gets serious, and soon, about stopping Iran from getting a bomb, he'll be forced to deal with the consequences of Israel acting in its own defense.

Is U.S. reconciled to a nuclear Iran? part 2

More evidence the Obama Administration isn't going to do much about Iran.

Asked by NBC's David Gregory if the effort to keep North Korea from going nuclear had failed, Mrs. Clinton answered, "No, I don't think so, because their program is still at the beginning stages." In other words, two nuclear tests and a stockpile of seven or eight nuclear weapons are no longer enough to join the club.

The Washington Times Tuesday, July 28, 2009
EDITORIAL: Defining the threat away

The traditional threshold for a country to join the nuclear-weapons club is straightforward. Any state that tests a nuclear weapon gets in. However, on Sunday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton proposed more exclusive membership requirements.

Asked by NBC's David Gregory if the effort to keep North Korea from going nuclear had failed, Mrs. Clinton answered, "No, I don't think so, because their program is still at the beginning stages." In other words, two nuclear tests and a stockpile of seven or eight nuclear weapons are no longer enough to join the club. Tough luck Pyongyang, you've been blackballed.

This would simply be an exercise in semantics if it weren't for the probability that Iran will soon test its own nuclear weapon. This administration, like its predecessor, has said that an Iranian nuclear-weapons capability would be unacceptable. But if Iran conducts a nuclear test sometime in the coming months, that apparently will not indicate the failure of diplomacy any more than the North Korean tests have. Faced with defeat, the State Department will define it away.

The Obama administration's willingness to accept the inevitability of a nuclear Iran could not be clearer. Mrs. Clinton said that if Iran is "pursuing nuclear weapons for the purpose of intimidating, of projecting your power, we're not going to let that happen." Yes, the United States will do "everything [it] can to prevent [Iran] from ever getting a nuclear weapon," she said. But failing that?

The secretary of state said that even a nuclear-armed Iran would be thwarted. Its pursuit of regional hegemony is "futile," she argued, because the "security umbrella" the United States would extend over the region would negate the advantages Iran seeks from atomic weaponry. Iran "won't be any stronger or safer because they won't be able to intimidate or dominate as they apparently believe they can, once they have a nuclear weapon," she said last week.

Tehran seems perfectly content with the futility of its pursuit. Iran has made substantial progress on uranium enrichment necessary for constructing a nuclear weapon, and most estimates agree that it will be able to construct and test a weapon within the year. Meanwhile, countries such as Israel that cannot protect their territory and people with semantic shields are preparing to take action. Israel's apparent state of readiness to exercise the military option against Iran -- and America's clear lack of readiness -- underscores the credibility gap in the U.S. position that all options are on the table. Israel is communicating a credible threat of force to Tehran, a necessary element in coercive diplomacy that the U.S. posture explicitly lacks.

The American "umbrella strategy" is purely defensive and thus more likely to encourage Iran's leaders than dissuade them. The Obama administration states firmly that an Iranian nuclear weapon would be unacceptable but at the same time indicates it will accept that. Nuclear Iran is not faced with massive retaliation but passive accommodation. That's not much of a deterrent.
------
hat tip to israelmatzav.blogspot.com

Is U.S. reconciled to a nuclear Iran?

Israel slams Clinton statement on nuclear Iran
By Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondent, and The Associated Press 7/22/09


A key minister in the Israeli government criticized U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement on Tuesday that Washington would provide "a defense umbrella" for its allies in the Middle East in the event that Iran develops nuclear weapons.

Dan Meridor, Israel's minister for secret services, told Army Radio that [Clinton's] comments imply a willingness to reconcile with the eventuality of a nuclear-armed Iran.

"I heard, unenthusiastically, the Americans' statement that they will defend their allies in the event that Iran arms itself with an atomic bomb, as if they have already reconciled with this possibility, and this is a mistake," Meridor told Army Radio. "Now, we don't need to deal with the assumption that Iran will attain nuclear weapons but to prevent this."

Diplomats: Iran has means to test bomb in 6 months

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS 5:56 PM EDT, July 17, 2009

VIENNA - Iran is blocking U.N. nuclear agency attempts to upgrade monitoring of its atomic program while advancing those activities to the stage that the country would have the means to test a weapon within six months, diplomats told The Associated Press Friday.

The diplomats emphasized that there were no indications of plans for such a nuclear test, saying it was highly unlikely Iran would risk heightened confrontation with the West -- and chances of Israeli attack -- by embarking on such a course.

But they said that even as Iran expands uranium enrichment, which can create fissile nuclear material, it is resisting International Atomic Energy Agency attempts to increase surveillance of its enrichment site meant to keep pace with the plant's increased size and complexity.

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