by Barry Rubin, GLORIA,  Feb. 8, 2009
   
  Prof. Barry Rubin, GLORIA
Many people don’t  understand what’s happening now in Israeli politics, so here’s a brief, and  non-partisan, appreciation. Compared to the past, there’s far less difference  between the three main parties. This is largely due to the objective situation,  which is rather inflexible.  
 It is easy to characterize some as rabid right-wingers who throw away chances  for peace and others as rabid left-wingers who are ready to make too many  concessions. Neither argument is correct except for the fringes, which are not  going to shape Israeli policy. I am tempted to add that abroad, the left thinks  we’re evil, while the right thinks we’re stupid. All of this has little to do  with reality.
 The dominant theme in international media coverage is to say Israelis are  moving toward the right. Yet this is both misleading and misinterpreted. On the  first aspect, the real Israeli move has been toward the center, which is  represented not only by Kadima and Likud but also by Labor. The great majority  of Israelis are about to vote for parties close to centrist positions than at  any time in history.
 The left-wing mantra is peace, though how we can reach peace with Iran,  Syria, Hamas, and Hizballah is rather hard to see. With the PA the situation is  a more complex but, briefly, it doesn’t control Gaza, is still full of radical  elements, and has weak leadership.
 The PA is nowhere near being able to make peace on a realistic basis.  Everyone in the PA and in Israel’s leadership knows this; few in the Western  media and academia seems close to comprehending it. A lot of governments  understand the situation privately but talk quite different in public. 
 The right-wing mantra is victory, though how Israel is going to replace the  Iranian and Syrian governments, or destroy Hamas and Hizballah is equally hard  to see. Israel has minimal to no international support for these goals and lacks  great alternatives to what exists at present.
 What have Israelis learned over the last decade that shapes their  thinking?
 We discovered that Palestinians and Syrians are unwilling and unable to make  peace.
 We saw that Fatah is still full of extremism and its leadership is too weak  and too hardline itself to make a comprehensive peace agreement.
 We viewed the rise of Hamas as a group dedicated to permanent war with Israel  and its seizure of one-half of the Palestinian-ruled territories, using land  from which Israel withdrew as a base for attacks.
 We experienced the continuing hatred of the Arab world and Muslim world  toward Israel, largely undiminished by Israeli concessions.
 We observed Iran’s rise as a power, potentially nuclear armed, whose regime  explicitly seeks Israel’s extinction.
 We noted the world didn’t reward Israel for making concessions and taking  risks. Indeed, the more Israel gave, the higher the degree of slander and  hostility rose in many sectors.
 As a result of this, there has arisen in Israel a national consensus around  the following points:
    –Israel wants peace and will make real concessions for true lasting, stable    peace and a two-state solution
   –Few think the Palestinian leadership—PA, Fatah—is willing or able to make    such an agreement for decades. The same applies to Syria.
   –As a result, any real changes on Jerusalem, the Golan Heights or West Bank    settlements are far off.
   –No deal can be made with Hamas. But Hamas isn’t going to disappear either.    The same applies to Hizballah.
   –The key point is to defend Israel and its citizens so they pursue their    normal lives.
   –Iran is a real danger and when it appears about to get nuclear weapons, a    big decision will have to be made on attacking these  facilities.
 As a result of this national consensus—accepted by Labor, Likud, and Kadima,  along with many others—the next government can be a national unity government.  Whoever becomes prime minister would do well to bring in one or both of the  other two main parties. What is Israel’s consensus policy for the next  government?
    –To stress that we want peace, are ready for a Palestinian state, aren’t    responsible for the conflict and violence continuing.
   –To maintain deterrence and defend ourselves.
   –To preserve the best possible relations with the United States, Europe,    and other countries as long as it does not involve risks to Israeli national    interests and citizens.
   –Security cooperation with the PA to prevent terrorist attacks on Israel in    exchange for helping them economically and against Hamas to ensure that it    doesn’t take over the West Bank. Without illusions regarding Fatah and the PA,    this effort seems to be working.
   –To decide when to strike back at Hamas—and potentially Hizballah—based on    any attacks on us. Precise response depends on timing, opportunity, and their    behavior.
   –To work for the isolation of Iran, Hizballah and Hamas.
 Where are the main differences among the leading parties? They are more  atmospherics than real: offering small concessions; making small demands. If  much of the election revolves around personalities that is because strategy and  policy are not hugely different among them. Bibi isn’t going to embark on a  settlement-building campaign; Tzipi isn’t going to give away east Jerusalem.
 And that’s a good thing for whatever faults they have, this trio is basically  making appropriate responses to the situation.
 Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs  (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle  East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are  The  Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), with Walter Laqueur (Viking-Penguin);  the paperback edition of The  Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan); A Chronological History of  Terrorism, with Judy Colp Rubin, (Sharpe); and The  Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East  (Wiley). To subscribe to Gloria Center publications for free, write profbarryrubin@yahoo.com.